Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact     

Alison C. Rudd  Alison L. Kay  Steven C. Wells  Timothy Aldridge  Steven J. Cole  Elizabeth J. Kendon  Elizabeth J. Stewart 《水文研究》2020,34(1):139-149

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.  相似文献   

基于高分影像的松嫩低平原地区生态环境问题解析——以黑龙江省肇源县为例     

丁宇雪  毛龙  周向斌  初炜钰 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(4):1240-1248

基于高分辨率卫星影像数据，利用遥感、GIS技术获取黑龙江省肇源县内自然资源与生态地质环境各因子分布现状数据，其中：耕地2 541.75 km²、林地161.88 km²、草地349.00 km²、河流128.05 km²、湖泊215.80 km²、沼泽109.17 km²、其他水域84.65 km²、建设用地191.25 km²、未利用地329.94 km²；湿地1 334.54 km²、荒漠化土地775.47 km²。利用地类覆盖率、人均占有量以及景观指数（破碎度指数、平均斑块分形指数、分形维数、多样性指数、均匀度指数）量化分析后，得出两类生态地质环境因子中湿地资源尤其是自然湿地受人类活动干扰程度较大、荒漠化土地受人类活动干扰程度较小的结论。并选取老山村等典型地区进行了多期次遥感动态监测及野外核查，揭示了松嫩低平原典型地区目前存在的湿地退化、土地荒漠化等生态地质环境问题。  相似文献   

松辽盆地北部上二叠统林西组地球化学特征及地质意义     

张健  张海华  陈树旺  郑月娟  张德军  苏飞  黄欣 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):518-530

为探讨松辽盆地北部林西组地球化学特征、沉积环境及构造背景，对该区黑富地1井所钻遇的上二叠统林西组暗色泥质板岩进行主量元素、微量元素和稀土元素测试分析，结果表明：样品主量元素平均质量分数SiO₂为65.05%、Al₂O₃为17.23%、CaO为2.58%、Na₂O为2.84%、K₂O为3.29%，K₂O/Na₂O值为0.20~3.48，A1₂O₃/（CaO+Na₂O）值为0.41~8.01；稀土元素w（∑REE）值介于80.68×10^-6~215.59×10^-6之间，平均值为173.41×10^-6，δEu值介于0.61~0.88之间，平均值为0.70，表现为Eu的负异常，δCe值介于0.91×10^-6~1.01×10^-6之间，为微弱的Ce负异常，LREE富集，HREE亏损；微量元素以亏损Nb、Ta、Sr，相对富集Rb、Ba、La、Ce、Pb、Nd、Sm为特征。样品元素分析和物源w（TiO₂）-w（Ni）、La/Th-w（Hf）等判别图解表明，林西组沉积物源具有多样性，主要来源于上地壳长英质物源，还有少量来自中、基性岩火成岩物源区。样品微量元素标准化蛛网图，稀土元素球粒陨石标准化配分模式图，K₂O/Na₂O-w（SiO₂）、Th-Co-Zr/10、F₂-F₁构造背景判别图及地球化学参数对比结果表明，松辽盆地北部林西组物源构造背景主要为活动大陆边缘和大陆岛弧，可能形成于靠近大陆岛弧的活动大陆边缘构造背景。林西组应形成于海陆过渡相到陆相环境，水体由半咸水逐渐转变为淡水。  相似文献   

四川盆地广安地区中二叠统栖霞组岩石特征与沉积环境     

易海永  崔宝琛  王瑶琳  邱玉超  徐胜林  李乾 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2020,50(2):454-464

四川盆地中二叠统栖霞组勘探发现系列油气，资源潜力巨大。但广安地区中二叠统栖霞组的岩石学特征及沉积环境研究薄弱。在野外地质调查的基础上，结合室内岩石学、岩相学等综合分析，对广安地区栖霞组碳酸盐岩岩石特征、沉积相类型及其古地理展布特征进行了系统研究。结果表明：广安地区栖霞组主要发育亮晶颗粒灰岩、亮晶生物碎屑灰岩、微晶生物碎屑灰岩、微晶颗粒灰岩、生物碎屑微晶灰岩、含生物碎屑微晶灰岩和泥晶灰岩7种岩石类型；碳酸盐岩颗粒主要以生物碎屑为主，部分层位发育球粒；古生物化石以三叶虫、腕足和有孔虫为主，同时可见棘皮类和藻类；栖霞组沉积期主要为碳酸盐岩台地沉积环境，其中栖霞组晚期（栖二段）台缘滩和台内滩较为发育，为该区油气成藏提供了有利条件。  相似文献   

Origin and depositional environments of source rocks and crude oils from Niger Delta Basin: Carbon isotopic evidence     

《China Geology》2020,3(4):602-610

Thirty-nine crude oils and twenty-one rock samples from Niger Delta Basin, Nigeria have been characterized based on their isotope compositions by elemental analysis-isotope ratio mass spectrometry and gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrometry. The bulk carbon isotopic values of the whole rock extracts, saturate and aromatic fractions range from –28.7‰ to –26.8‰, –29.2‰ to –27.2 ‰ and –28.5 ‰ to –26.7 ‰, respectively while the bulk carbon isotopic values of the whole oils, saturate and aromatic fractions range from –25.4 ‰ to –27.8 ‰, –25.9 ‰ to –28.4 ‰ and –23.5 ‰ to –26.9 ‰, respectively. The average carbon isotopic compositions of individual alkanes (nC₁₂-nC₃₃) in the rock samples range from –34.9‰ to –28.2‰ whereas the average isotopic values of individual n-alkanes in the oils range from –31.1‰ to –23.8‰. The δ¹³C isotope ratios of pristane and phytane in the rock samples range from –29.2 ‰ to –28.2 ‰ and –30.2 ‰ to –27.4 ‰ respectively while the pristane and phytane isotopic values range from –32.1‰ to –21.9‰ and –30.5‰ to –26.9‰, respectively. The isotopic values recorded for the samples indicated that the crude oils were formed from the mixed input of terrigenous and marine organic matter and deposited under oxic to sub-oxic condition in lacustrine-fluvial/deltaic environments. The stable carbon isotopic compositions were found to be effective in assessing the origin and depositional environments of crude oils in the Niger Delta Basin.  相似文献   

新时代的国土空间规划体系重建与制度环境改革     

王开泳  陈田 《地理研究》2019,38(10):2541-2551

在全面推进生态文明建设背景下,急需建立适合中国国情的国土空间开发保护制度和国土空间规划体系,这是新时期建立空间治理体系的重要任务。在国务院新一轮的机构改革背景下,空间类规划的编制职能向自然资源部集中,急需探索和建立全国国土空间规划体系的总体框架和制度环境改革的推进路径。研究表明：国家国土空间规划体系的重建取决于三个方面,一是依赖于部门的职能整合,二是国土空间规划体系的整合与重构,三是依赖于制度环境改革。因此,在机构改革逐步完成的形势下,需要从国土空间规划体系重建与制度环境改革两个路径着手,从国家、省域、市县等层面阐述了中国国土空间规划体系的重建思路,构建五级四类、上下衔接、分级管理的国土空间规划体系。从确定国土空间开发保护制度、专业人才培养、规划资质管理、推进立法等几个方面推进制度环境改革。最后从推进国土空间规划立法、审批程序前置和推进相关法律法规修改完善等方面提出具体举措,以确立国土空间规划的法定地位与统领作用。结合新时期国土空间规划编制,提出了尽快出台国土空间规划编制办法和技术规程、重新调整中国国土空间规划编制的时序安排、加强技术队伍建设等若干建议。  相似文献   

Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Xilin Gol Grassland Transects: A Perspective on Food Nutritional Demand     

YANG Wanni  ZHEN Lin  LUO Qi 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(6):614-620

Food safety is an important issue for the development of the national economy and society. Studying regional food supply and demand from the perspective of land resource carrying capacity can provide new references for regional resource sustainability. This study uses the data from farmer and herdsmen household questionnaires, statistical data, land use data, and other sources to construct a land resource carrying capacity (LCC) assessment framework, targeting the food supply and demand of residents in representative areas, specifically the typical grassland pastoral areas, sandy pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas on the Xilin Gol grassland transects. The three food nutritional indicators of calories, protein and fat were selected for analyzing the balance of land resource carrying capacity. We found that: 1) Along the Xilin Gol grassland, the main local food supply showed a shift from meat and milk to grains, vegetables and fruits. 2) From north to south along the grassland transects, the calorie intake increased gradually, while the intake of protein and fat was highest in pastoral areas and lowest in agricultural areas. 3) The overall land resource carrying capacity of the Xilin Gol grassland transects was in a surplus state, but the land carrying capacity of typical grassland pastoral area was higher than the two other types of areas. This study provides an empirical reference for the sustainable development of regional food nutrition.  相似文献   

基于车桥耦合振动的常用简支空心板梁桥冲击系数分析          下载免费PDF全文

梁栋  张硕  刘菁  邹轩 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):144-152

通过Universal Mechanism和ANSYS软件相结合建立了车桥耦合振动模型，考虑车型、行车速度、车重和桥梁频率等因素，对工程常用的4种标准跨径装配式混凝土空心板梁桥进行了车桥耦合振动模拟。研究表明:冲击系数随车速增加而上升；随车重增加而增大；随桥梁频率的增加而降低。在多种因素中，车速对冲击系数影响最为明显。  相似文献   

13世纪以来中国海洋盐业动态演变及驱动因素     

鲍俊林  高抒 《地理科学》2019,39(4):596-605

海洋盐业是中国海洋经济的重要部分,也是沿海传统产业之一,13世纪以来不断发展演变。将沿海分为北、东、南3个地带,搜集整理与海盐经济相关的多种历史文献及方志资料,运用地理学方法分析评估了海洋盐业百年尺度的动态演化过程,并比较了资源环境与管理政策的驱动作用及其差异。研究表明：① 沿海盐业表现为传统煎法长期主导、逐步废煎改晒的过程,不同盐区的演化进程存在显著差异,北部盐区最快,东部次之,南部整体发展缓慢;② 海盐生产重心长期位于东部的两淮盐区,19世纪后期向北部盐区快速迁移;③ 资源环境与生态差异促进了各岸段海盐生产演化分异,垄断性管理政策迟滞了海洋盐业的空间集聚进程,未来沿海开发与海洋盐业的可持续发展将主要依靠基于资源生态约束的管理政策与技术。  相似文献   

国土空间规划:生态环境类单幅总图的研制     

李九一  李丽娟  王传胜 《地理研究》2019,38(10):2506-2517

生态环境类单幅总图是国土空间规划编制的重要内容,是落实生态环境空间管控,促进生态环境与社会经济协调发展,实现一张蓝图干到底的重要支撑。探讨空间规划生态单幅总图和环境单幅总图的编制要点与技术方法,并以福建省为例,研制生态环境空间战略目标、空间结构与重点任务。在案例研究中,制定了福建省“三屏、六廊、十四片区”的生态安全格局建设方案,以及空间差异化的环境管控方案,并在空间上落实了生态环境治理的重点区域和重大生态环境治理工程。通过探讨生态环境类单幅总图编制与生态环境类专项规划的关系,阐明省级规划指导市、县等下层级空间规划生态环境单幅总图编制的原则与方法,是落实空间规划对生态环境保护空间指引的创新与实践。  相似文献